Let’s call it a late June swoon.
As the Mariners enter the fourth month of the 2024 season, the third month ended in forgettable fashion.
Just like in April and May, the Mariners finished with a winning record in June. But it didn’t feel that way.
They finished June with a 15-12 record, but eight of those losses came in their final 11 games.
And they were ugly losses, with offensive production even worse than their usual tepid performances. In those 11 games, Mariners hitters combined to post a .194/.273/.319 slash line in 405 plate appearances with 12 homers, three triples, nine doubles, 36 runs scored, 32 RBIs, 35 walks and 123 strikeouts. In the eight losses, they scored a total of 17 runs.
By comparison, the Mariners went 12-4 through their first 16 games, posting a .222/.323/.404 batting line and averaging five runs per game.
For those who bristle at their propensity to strike out, the Mariners had 10 players with 60 or more plate appearances in June, and all of them struck out in at least 20% of them. Luke Raley (36.1%), Dylan Moore (33.8%) and Dominic Canzone (31.3%) had the most, while JP Crawford (20.7%) had the fewest. Only Canzone (.268) and Raley (.263) had batting averages above .250, and five players were below .200.
Will July be kinder to the Mariners?
It will be a month punctuated by the All-Star break and featuring 30 days of speculation, rumors and anxiety with the MLB trade deadline on July 30.
Obviously, the Mariners need to improve their offense and add some depth to their bullpen, but the trade market has yet to truly develop and only a few teams are definite sellers.
The month begins with a three-game series against the Baltimore Orioles, perhaps the best team in the American League, followed by the annual invasion of Toronto Blue Jays fans from Canada.
Seattle has seven games against the Los Angeles Angels and three games against the Chicago White Sox, although playing bad teams has not proven to be a guarantee of victories.
But the most important series will be a three-game series against the Houston Astros at T-Mobile Park the weekend after the All-Star break (July 19-21).
The Mariners will presumably be bolstered by relievers Gregory Santos (latissimus dorsi strain) and Gabe Speier (rotator cuff strain) expected to return from the injured list in the coming weeks, and starter Bryan Woo (hamstring strain) also expected to be ready to play soon after he is eligible to return from the injured list.
For the Mariners to hold off the Astros and maintain their lead in the AL West, they need their regular lineup to be significantly better than it has been this season.
Julio Rodriguez still doesn’t seem to have regained his swing, technique and power. In his last 14 games in June, he posted a .143/.200/.196 slash line in 60 plate appearances. Of his eight hits, he hit one home run with three RBIs, four walks and 12 strikeouts.
FanGraphs’ weighted runs created plus (wRC+) metric is a comprehensive measure of the impact of a player’s offense on creating runs, with 100 being the average. Of players with a qualifying number of plate appearances, Rodriguez ranks 128th.He in MLB with a wRC+ of 84. In 2022, he had a wRC+ of 146 and in 2023 a wRC+ of 126.
Of players with 220 plate appearances this season, only Raley (117), Dylan Moore (113), Ty France (106) and Josh Rojas (103) have a wRC+ above 100 this season.
While fans want the Mariners to trade for a hitter, even the best hitter available on the market might not be enough to make the offense viable without increased production from players like Rodriguez, Crawford, Jorge Polanco and the combination of Canzone and Mitch Haniger.