KANSAS CITY — Welcome to July 2024, which could become one of the most important months in the 124-year history of Clevelandbaseball franchise
Okay, maybe that’s a bit dramatic, but the Guardians have never had a month like the one they’re facing. It’s not every year that they enter trade season at the top of the standings, with a chance to fix some roster deficiencies and build on a strong first half. And in no year have they had the No. 1 pick in the amateur draft, with a chance to add a top-tier prospect (plus a couple other high picks) to their minor league system.
Rarely do those two tasks fall simultaneously on a general manager’s desk. The team, which always talks about “threading the needle” and addressing short- and long-term containment plans, has never been better positioned to do so. July marks the peak of summer and will mark the peak of activity for Cleveland’s front office. For a few weeks, the front office decision-makers’ daily itinerary has included draft meetings and trade discussions. Ask team president Chris Antonetti or general manager Mike Chernoff about their to-do list and their first reaction is to laugh.
Somehow, after a rough 2023 season and a sleepy winter, the stars aligned to put the Guardians at the center of the baseball universe by July 2024. This month, they’ll find themselves in the middle of all the conversations. What a time to be the Guardians.
They’ve owned the second pick in the draft five times, but never the first, and they had just a 2 percent chance of claiming the top pick in the lottery before luck struck. Antonetti suggested over the weekend that the team might not finalize its selection “until moments before we make the selection” on July 14. Stance? Maybe. Regardless, he’ll snap his fingers and add a top-50 prospect in the sport to the farm system, likely someone who could work his way into Stephen Vogt’s lineup next summer. Whether it’s Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana or Georgia slugger Charlie Condon or West Virginia shortstop J.J. Wetherholt, the pick figures to be the organization’s top prospect the instant it shakes hands with commissioner Rob Manfred. He could be the most promising young player they’ve added in a long time, someone to spearhead the franchise’s bid to win a World Series in 2025 and beyond.
Cleveland could select Oregon State infielder Travis Bazzana with the first overall pick on July 14. (Kevin Neri/USA Today)
But what about the franchise’s bid to win the World Series in 2024?
The mere presence of that first pick should make it easier for management to part with some prospects at the trade deadline. Their needs are clear: rotation help, more rotation help, even more rotation help, and then more rotation help. Once they’ve exhausted their search for more rotation help, they can move on to something other than more rotation help, such as a right-handed hitter.
The Guardians have been in contact with other teams about potential trades for weeks, but those conversations are laying the groundwork for deals that won’t materialize until closer to the July 30 deadline, if they happen at all. Several league executives predicted talks would stall around the draft before gaining momentum in the final two weeks of the month.
With three wild-card spots up for grabs in each league and so many teams hovering around .500, the market could unfold slowly until desperation sets in as the deadline approaches. One executive described many teams as presenting a “wait-and-see strategy” and suggested they lack clarity on a plan. Teams caught in the middle figure they must wait as long as possible before being forced to decide whether to buy, sell or do nothing. The Guardians fell into that category last year, opting to sell. Aaron Civale and Josh Bell after weeks of deliberation over whether they had the ingredients to succeed in October.
Since there are only a handful of clear sellers at the moment, those clubs have the upper hand, asking for the firstborn of each rival GM and emphasizing that they can simply wait until closer to the deadline, when more teams will be interested. The Guardians won’t be the only team looking for starting pitching help, which will further complicate matters.
They need a boost in their rotation to survive 162 games as much or more than they need to help them win in October, when they can lean more heavily on their league-best bullpen. Starting pitching help isn’t the only option. They could add another hitter, and because they have so many versatile position players, they can target almost anyone who’s available.
Another alternative if the starting pitching market doesn’t improve: adding to what is already a deep and imposing bullpen into one that can offset a beleaguered rotation like Cleveland’s bullpen did in October 2016. This isn’t high on the priority list, but it would offer protection if rookies Cade Smith, Gaddis Hunter and Tim Herrin They stumble in the second half, and it’s generally easier (depending on skill level) to get a reliever in July than a starter.
The Guardians have been aggressive at this position before, defying modest expectations to emerge as a genuine contender. In 2011, sensing (prematurely) that they were on the verge of a window of contention, they sent four prospects, including a pair of first-rounders, for Ubaldo Jimenez, the best starting pitcher available. In 2016, they sent four prospects to the Yankees for Andrew Miller (and they were in Aroldis Chapmanalso, as a contingency) and two more prospects for Brandon Guyer. They tried to send four others to the Brewers for Jonathan Lucroy, but the catcher vetoed the deal, a development that still makes Cleveland executives laugh and shake their heads.
They also agreed to deals with Jay Bruce in 2017 and Josh Donaldson in 2018, and traded their top prospect in 2019. Francisco Mejia toward Parents by Brad Hand, the best reliever on the market. If they get rid of some of their top prospects this month, they can make up for it with their new draft class. They own three of the first 48 picks (1, 36, 48).
The Guardians haven’t won the World Series since 1948, just 909 months ago. If they finally break the curse, either this year or in the near future, July 2024 could have a lot to do with it.
GO DEEPER
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(Photo by Chris Antonetti: Jason Miller/Getty Images)