The first thing I’m going to say is that you probably won’t like what you read here. However, I ask that you at least read it and consider it.
Before we begin, I think MLB has missed a unique opportunity surrounding the trade deadline. The CBA signed in 2022 gives the Commissioner the right to set the deadline on any date between July 28 and August 3. So why not pick the Monday that falls within that window, make it an off day for all teams, and create a Trade Deadline Day? Everyone could follow it all day, MLB Network could put on a televised extravaganza, and no one would have to worry about the games on that day.
As planned for this year, the deadline is Tuesday, July 30 at 5:00 p.m. Central Time. That’s before any of that day’s games begin, so there’s no longer any “watchful hug” when players emerge from the dugouts and hug their teammates after learning they’ve been traded.
I hope that in the next few years MLB will consider the idea of a trade deadline. It would be a lot more fun if there were no games on that day.
Now, let’s talk about this year’s Cubs. I find it amazing how similar the Chicago Cubs’ position is in 2024 to where they were at this point on the calendar in 2023.
This year, after 85 games: 39-46, 11 games out of first place, five games out of the last wild-card spot.
Last year, after 85 games: 40-45, seven games out of first place, six games out of the last wild-card spot.
I think the difference going into last year’s deadline is that the Cubs had more tradable pieces than they do now.
A year ago, Cody Bellinger was on the cusp of being named the National League Player of the Month for July. His contract was about to expire and he was set to become a free agent after the season.
A year ago, Marcus Stroman had just been named to the National League All-Star team for his strong first half of the season. Stroman had a buyout clause in his contract that he was expected to exercise (and, of course, that’s exactly what he did after the season).
A year ago, Yan Gomes was having one of the best years of his career. Had the Cubs been interested in trading him, there would have been a host of suitors lined up to take on that contract, which came with a team option that an acquiring team could have exercised — or not. The Cubs, of course, exercised that option after Gomes’ strong year, only to end up releasing him about 10 days ago after he started 2024 having the worst year of his career.
Those were three highly tradable pieces that, had the Cubs not made their run in July 2023, likely would have ended up elsewhere.
How do this year’s Cubs line up in terms of trade?
Bellinger’s strong month of July 2023 came mostly after the July 5 date we’re talking about. He had a .796 OPS on that date, a bit better than the .743 he’s sporting now. He finished July 2023 with a .900 season OPS, hitting .400/.432/.690 with eight homers that month. I assure you that if Bellinger suddenly turns on and hits like this the rest of this month, the 2024 Cubs will be a better team and win quite a few games.
But if he keeps hitting like he has? Who would sign him knowing that he probably would NOT give up the $30 million he would be owed in 2025? No one is going to give him $30 million in 2025 as a free agent if he keeps hitting like that.
The Cubs are not going to trade Ian Happ, as much as many people here want that to happen. Regardless of his NTC, this front office seems to like having him on the team and he has been productive both offensively and defensively. Happ is likely to win another Gold Glove this year.
There have been comments made and published about the Mariners supposedly being “interested” in Nico Hoerner. This sort of thing is exactly why I rarely write articles like this. Mostly, it’s national reporter Jon Morosi sensing a “need” at second base for the Mariners and looking and saying, “Hey, Nico Hoerner might look good there!” Maybe it’s a step beyond idle speculation. Once again, this FO sees Hoerner as part of a core. He could also win another Gold Glove this year.
Josh wrote A BCB After Dark installment on the possibility of trading Jameson Taillon. I don’t think that’s going to happen either, not with two years left on his contract. Plus, Taillon has been pretty good this year. Why would you change that? It’s something to build around, unless you want another “rebuild that’s not a rebuild.”
Given that the Cubs’ bullpen has been so bad and injury-ridden, I suspect you’ll agree that there’s no one in the bullpen with any real trade value.
Back to the 2023 Cubs story, you know what happened after they had a 40-45 record after 85 games. They floundered for about a week, in fact, falling from five games under .500 to seven games under with a 43-50 record, before going on a 10-1 run that took them above .500 and turned the team from sellers into buyers.
Could something similar happen now? Of course it could. Did anyone here see that 10-1 Cubs run a year ago? I sure didn’t, but it happened. The difference is that the 2023 Cubs had sellable parts. This team really doesn’t. It also reminds me of the 2017 Cubs, who went into the All-Star break below .500 at 43-45, and it was said at the time that they were maybe a week away from playing like that before pulling the plug and trading Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis. But that team went on a 14-3 run and ended up winning the NL Central and returning to the NL Championship Series.
Are the 2024 Cubs as good? Probably not. But are they good enough to put together a hot streak in the coming weeks and get back into the wild-card race? I think so.
As always, we await developments.