The New York Rangers enter this offseason with a noticeable hole on the right wing. After trade deadline acquisition Jack Roslovic failed to impress, scoring five goals and 16 points in his 35 regular-season and postseason games, the Blueshirts will once again look for a top-six right wing from Roslovic will become an unrestricted free agent on July 1. and he is not expected to re-sign.
But perhaps that solution is already on the team. Alexis Lafreniere made the switch to right wing last season and flourished, posting 28 goals and 57 points, the most of his NHL career, alongside Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck. Perhaps he could provide a similar spark playing to the right of Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider.
It’s been a revolving door for Zibanejad and Kreider, who have seen many right-wing partners come and go since Pavel Buchnevich was traded to the St. Louis Blues in July 2021. This season started with Kaapo Kakko, but the 23-year-old years-old was quickly replaced by Blake Wheeler and Jimmy Vesey after initial ineffectiveness. After the deadline, Roslovic filled that spot in the playoffs, when he was eventually knocked down in favor of Filip Chytil and Alex Wennberg as the postseason progressed.
In past seasons, players like Vladimir Tarasenko, Patrick Kane, Frank Vatrano, Julien Gauthier, Sammy Blais and Dryden Hunt filled that role, with no one really stepping into the role outside of Vatrano, who helped the line generate a 56.1. Expected goals by percentage after the 2022 trade deadline.
Tarasenko, Kane and Vatrano all left in free agency after being acquired in a midseason trade, allowing the carousel to continue. The Rangers simply haven’t had a consistent, effective presence alongside Kreider and Zibanejad since Buchnevich.
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How Alexis Lafreniere Could Help Solve Rangers’ Frontline Problem
Zibanejad and Kreider’s play has been inconsistent since then, and the pair particularly struggled this postseason, creating a humble 39.7 xGF% in more than 150 minutes at five against five with their right-wing counterparts.
His best metrics have come alongside Panarin, which shouldn’t be surprising given his exceptional play. The trio generated an astonishing 68.6% xGF in 62.1 minutes this season and a 65.5% since Panarin’s signing four seasons ago.
Unfortunately, Panarin is a natural left winger, largely preferring to play on that side, and placing Panarin alongside Zibanejad and Kreider leaves the Blueshirts with a much less balanced offensive attack.
Lafreniere, however, is an interesting prospect. It’s a group that was experimented with under coach Gerard Gallant, logging 282 minutes between 2020 and 2022, when that trio scored 16 goals.
Of course, it’s certainly a risky endeavor to break up the Blueshirts’ most effective offensive line. Panarin, Trocheck and Lafreniere were by far the Rangers’ best 5v5 group, with a team-leading 55.6 xGF% (minimum 150 minutes).
The trio scored 56 goals, 39 more than any other line combination. The next closest were Kreider, Zibanejad and Wheeler with 17.
If you believe in the saying, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” then you probably don’t want to even think about touching this line. However, Zibanejad and Kreider need a boost to be at even strength, something Lafreniere adamantly excelled at.
Unable to crack the top power play unit, Lafreniere was forced to perform most of his offensive production at even strength. By scoring 26 of his 28 even-strength goals, Lafreniere finished 15th in the NHL and ranked second on the team, behind only Panarin’s 39.
He scored eight tied goals in the postseason, doubling the next closest teammate, and seven at 5-on-5. His eight tied goals are the most in a Rangers postseason, trailing only Mark Messier, who scored nine in 1994 .
Even as the Stanley Cup Final continues without the Rangers, Zach Hyman is the only skater this postseason with more even goals (9) than Lafreniere.
Zibanejad scored 12 even goals and eight at five-on-five in 81 regular-season games, his lowest five-on-five mark since his first year in New York, when he scored just 14 goals as a 23-year-old. Having a physical presence like Lafreniere, who has proven effective without the benefit of the human advantage, could boost both Zibanejad’s play and the production of the line as a whole.
There may be concerns about Lafreniere’s ability to perform at the same level without playing alongside the Rangers’ top two point producers (Panarin – 120, Trocheck – 77). However, his strong postseason performance should alleviate some of those concerns.
Lafreniere tied the team lead with eight goals in the playoffs and was a bright spot in a six-game series loss to the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference final, scoring a team-high four goals with some moves highlights.
The 22-year-old did all of that even though Florida was able to stifle Panarin for long stretches, limiting him to one goal and four points. While Lafreniere likely benefited from playing alongside two of the team’s best playmakers, this postseason solidified that the former first overall pick is a playmaker in his own right and has the talent to drive offensive play.
While Kakko, Wheeler, Roslovic and Chytil brought positive elements to the table, Zibanejad and Kreider have never played alongside anyone this season who is as dynamic and well-rounded offensively as Lafreniere, outside of Panarin for brief periods.
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How would the Rangers fill the void alongside Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck?
Putting Lafreniere on that wing gives a huge offensive boost, while the line of Panarin and Trocheck remains dangerous as they still have two excellent playmakers. Now, he shifts the opening on the right wing to his line, but perhaps that can be used as a way to wake up someone else on the roster.
Despite flashes of quality play and a 40-point season in 2022-23, Kakko has been plagued by inconsistency and has underperformed his No. 2 overall draft pick. He now faces similar conversations that Lafreniere faced last offseason when his future with the Blueshirts was in doubt.
We’ve seen Kakko run alongside Zibanejad and Kreider, but we’ve rarely seen him paired with Panarin and Trocheck. The trio generated a 69.6 xGF% per 25 minutes in 2022-23, but did not play together this season. Perhaps Kakko’s puck possession would better translate into creating scoring opportunities along that line and perhaps even increase his scoring touch, not unlike what happened with Lafreniere this year.
If Kakko is traded or relegated to a bottom-six role, it could be an opportunity for one of the Rangers’ young AHL wingers like Brennan Othmann or Brett Berard. Placing them in the top six would be a brave move for a Stanley Cup contender, but skating alongside a 120-point scorer could also make the transition to the NHL easier.
Either way, there is a world in which moving Lafreniere away from Panarin and Trocheck becomes doubly beneficial, provoking both Zibanejad and Kreider, as well as another winger.
There is still plenty of time before coach Peter Laviolette has to make these difficult decisions as free agency is still two weeks away. However, finding a way to get the most out of Kreider and Zibanejad should be the number one priority this offseason.
As the postseason demonstrated, it will be difficult for the Rangers to have significant playoff success if their stars don’t click.