Here are some things we know about the upcoming Phoenix Suns offseason.
They would like to add a wing with size, solving the season-long problem of being undersized in the starting lineup. Grayson Allen exceeded all expectations and was very good in this role. He also shouldn’t be the guy trying to defend number one options. Kevin Durant being the only playable wing was a huge disadvantage for Phoenix all year, especially when it came to how much more athletic other teams felt in comparison.
There is no easy way for the Suns to add this player. He doesn’t seem optimistic on the trade market unless Phoenix offers an unprotected 2031 first-round pick. Free agency is just veteran minimum contracts, where last year the Suns failed to land Keita Bates-Diop, Josh Okogie and Yuta Watanabe They will find a role in the rotation.
That leaves the draft and the 22nd pick for the Suns this year. General manager James Jones generally targets older players who developed in college. It turns out that wings with a few years of college experience often fall out of the lottery in the first round. Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht will be a rare exception this year. And this draft class is particularly well-equipped with wings who are either international prospects or lack long-term college experience.
There’s a chance that Phoenix’s best chance to fill this need is to take a wing with the pick in the back half of the first round, leading us to speculate whether Jones’ tendencies would be better for the Suns than a forward. cruder. prospect.
So how well do those picks traditionally work? Would a look at recent history suggest that an experienced wing is the way to go? Even simpler, is this draft spot a good place to find an experienced college wing? Let’s find out.
We’ll judge the success rate of these past picks using a new basketball metric that’s taking the world by storm, KTTAG: Kellan Thinks They’re Good. Haven’t you heard of him? Get him out from under that rock! He is everywhere!
All we are doing is giving a player the nod if he has proven to be relatively successful as an NBA rotation player. If we were to put one of them on last year’s Suns, they would have at least gained minutes behind Royce O’Neale at that extra wing spot Phoenix is trying to fill this offseason.
And we are analyzing the best versions of these prospects. A strong indicator of this is whether they ever got paid after their rookie contract expired.
Yes, you’ll roll my eyes at me suggesting some names like Tony Snell, but he got a $46 million contract in 2017 because he was good! I swear! Solomon Hill also had a brief career! The Pelicans gave him $48 million the year before! Never forget!
Even though some players have already come out of the last two drafts, our 10-year sample size will go from 2012 to 21. Again, we are looking at picks 15 through 30 and counting players we would classify as wings. They are not limited to one big man skill set and are not defined exclusively as one point guard, two guards, or one combo guard. A certain threshold of size and versatility must be met.
Here you have the data and conclusions:
Recent NBA Draft history of wings with college experience
During those 10 drafts, a total of 72 wings were taken between Nos. 15 and 30. That’s an average of just over seven per draft, which represents almost half of the second half of the first round. It is not surprising. But of the 72, 29 became pretty solid contributors at some point in their careers. That’s a 40.3% hit rate on KTTAG. A surprise there.
As you might expect, there is almost always a diamond in the rough, and again, that’s just within this positional group. And also, unsurprisingly, many teams fail to analyze the diamond in the rough to find said diamond.
The class of 2014 produced two good races for Bogdan Bogdanovic (27th) and Kyle Anderson (30th).
Unsuccessful big men like Juancho Hernangomez, Guerschon Yabusele and Henry Ellenson were chosen in 2016 ahead of Malik Beasley (19th), Caris LeVert (20th) and Pascal Siakam (27th). The following year, inexperienced DJ Wilson and Terrance Ferguson left the board before OG Anunoby (23rd), Kyle Kuzma (27th) and Josh Hart (30th). 2020 gave us some wings with some promising years ahead, but none bigger than Jaden McDaniels (29th).
Now for James Jones’ question. How many of these guys were experienced college players with at least three years of school?
There were 23. And 14 worked. A KTTAG success rate of 60.9%. Interesting!
Which means, yes, for wings without college experience, the hit rate was just 15 of 49 (30.6%) on either international prospects or prospects who played two years or less in college.
To go? Well, the working theory was that the more NBA-ready prospects on the wing, who typically drop to this part of the draft due to a lack of high-end potential, have higher floors. The briefest of studies (with a silly acronym we made up because it sounds funny) has confirmed this.
Still, this is nothing close to a guarantee.
Even recently scouting college cornerstones of the 2022 draft class, Christian Braun (21st) earned KTTAG’s seal of approval. David Roddy (23rd) and Wendell Moore Jr. (26th) have not.
Last year, Jamie Jaquez Jr. (18th) and Ben Sheppard (26th) earned the KTTAG designation before they were even drafted. So did Julian Strawther (29th) and Kobe Brown (30th), who are in wait-and-see territory.
For this year, the fascinating thing is that there only appears to be one of these out-of-the-box wings firmly qualified out of the lottery and into the first round. Colorado’s Tristan Da Silva is the only experienced standout and who we’ll be reviewing in full for the next iteration of 22 for 22. Which shouldn’t be a surprise, this has him moving up in the pre-draft processes and it looks like he might even be out of the board in adolescence. Da Silva is surrounded by a group of international and unique talents.
Kansas freshman Johnny Furphy, Miami freshman Kyshawn George, G League Ignite’s Tyler Smith, France’s Pacome Dadiet and the NBL’s Bobi Klintman could all advance to the first round.
Maybe that will inspire a slight outreach to those who are more in Da Silva’s company, like North Carolina’s Harrison Ingram, Kansas’ Kevin McCullar Jr., San Francisco’s Jonathan Mogbo, Illinois’ Terrence Shannon Jr. or Jaylon Tyson of Cal. Tyson, in particular, is moving up into important positions after the NBA Combine and during training.
If the Suns don’t trade the pick and stay at 22nd, he will most likely be one of those players they select. And recent results tell us that Jones’ line of thinking is the one we should follow.