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Champions League final: why a Real Madrid or Borussia Dortmund victory would defy the odds

Real Madrid aims to break the record of its 15th European Cup.

Borussia Dortmund aspires to achieve one of the biggest surprises in football in recent times.

Whoever wins the Champions League final on Saturday will defy the odds in their own way.

Madrid’s dominance in the most important prize in European club football confuses beliefs. Their record of 14 titles is double that of their closest rival, AC Milan.

“The club has created its history in this competition,” says coach Carlo Ancelotti.

Madrid’s record in the Champions League era is even more impressive: eight wins since the tournament changed its name in 1992; three in a row between 2016 and 2018 and five in the last 10 years. In the same period, Madrid has only won the league four times.

Madrid has also been a semi-finalist in 12 of the last 14 seasons.

“It is something special for the club, for all Real Madrid fans and for us, who are also Real Madrid fans. It is a competition in which we are more focused,” says Ancelotti, who as a coach can win a fifth Champions League, a record number.

Teams are not supposed to enjoy such superiority in a competition packed with the world’s biggest and richest clubs. Not even the great teams of recent times, such as Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona or Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United (both repeat finalists), could come close to the kind of dominance that Madrid has had in the Champions League. And even in the face of competition from state-backed teams such as Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain, Europe’s all-time king refuses to be dethroned.

That’s why this final is so intriguing.

It is a clash between the old money and glamor of Madrid and the smart approach of a Dortmund team that has found an alternative way to compete with Europe’s superpowers.

There is no better example of the contrast between the rivals than Jude Bellingham, who swapped Dortmund for Madrid last year in a deal worth up to $139 million.

Bellingham could well be the winner of the match, having helped Madrid win the Spanish title in a spectacular debut season.

However, in his absence, Dortmund are on the verge of adding their third final to their only Champions League triumph in 1997.

Selling players like Bellingham is part of the German club’s strategy of buying emerging talents and then cashing in.

A year earlier, it was Erling Haaland who was sold to Man City. The list of stars who have passed through the club includes Jadon Sancho, Christian Pulisic, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Ousmane Dembélé and Robert Lewandowski.

Not that Dortmund represents a fairy tale in the strictest terms. Forbes ranks it as the 12th most valuable soccer team in the world in its most recent rich list. But it represents a different way of competing at the top.

Dortmund’s willingness to give young players opportunities before selling them to bigger clubs has made them an attractive option for players like Haaland and Bellingham, who were targets of Manchester United before choosing to develop their careers in Germany.

“I was at Dortmund for three years and took a path that is a bit unknown for players in England,” Bellingham said. “But I am grateful for the opportunities I have been given in European football. Maybe they wouldn’t be as accessible in England.”

Bellingham’s move has paid off for all parties. He plays alongside Vinicius Junior and Eduardo Camavinga, and Kylian Mbappé is expected to join them next season.

That talent has been the basis of Madrid’s dominance in the Champions League. Many of football’s greats have worn the white shirt, from Zinedine Zidane to Cristiano Ronaldo.

Dortmund does it differently. As well as the youngsters, he has milked older stars Mats Hummels, Niclas Füllkrug and Marcel Sabitzer to chart his way to his first final in 11 years. Sancho’s loan after his turbulent time at United has also been key.

While they have endured a disappointing season in the Bundesliga, finishing fifth and 27 points behind champions Bayer Leverkusen, Dortmund have eliminated Dutch champions PSV and French champions PSG in the Champions League under Edin Terzic.

“Our goal is to win the Champions League and to do so we have to beat the champions. Now the historic absolute champion awaits us, and particularly in this competition,” says Terzic. “If anyone has shown that a lot can be achieved in a match, it is us, especially this season and especially in this competition.”

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James Robson is at https://twitter.com/jamesalanrobson

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AP Soccer: https://apnews.com/hub/soccer



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