Many of you shake your heads and move on. Atlanta Braves I haven’t drafted a position player in the first round in five years, and I haven’t even had a strong connection with them until this year. The Braves love their pitchers, don’t they? Well, they do, but while this may not be the particular draft for a shortstop to fall into Atlanta’s hands, they’re not going to be shy about targeting position players if they fall into their laps.
Why the Braves might draft a shortstop early
As far as national projections go, the Braves haven’t even seemed particularly interested in middle infield players in the early rounds for quite some time now. However, behind the scenes connections have been made quite frequently with a handful of position players, and especially young shortstops, that just haven’t turned out to be possible in the draft. Premium positions are coveted and with the Braves’ pick in the draft, it’s not often that premium players fall into their laps, but if the pick were available, there’s no doubt the Braves would be willing. Of all the positions outside of pitching, shortstop is really the biggest need, and while drafting based on need isn’t the ideal strategy, it certainly has merit. Nacho Alvarez is the Braves’ top prospect and currently plays shortstop, but it’s still far from clear that the Braves are ready to hand him the keys defensively and beyond that, top talents like Jose Perdomo and Ambioris Tavarez are wildly inexperienced and raw prospects. So, it would be wise to think that somehow the Braves will be looking at the shortstop position soon, whether it be in the draft, through trades, or another free agent signing.
In most years there are plenty of quality first-round shortstops available, but overall this is a weaker class in the middle and late parts of the draft with Seaver King of Wake Forest as the standout. King almost certainly won’t fall to No. 24 from what I can tell, but there’s plenty of reason to believe the Braves would be interested if he did. King’s biggest question marks — focus and ability to stay at shortstop — have never been things the Braves have shied away from. A player with King’s athleticism and hitting potential would be coveted by Atlanta and I think they’d take a chance on him not staying at shortstop. The Braves are confident enough in both his development and positioning strategy to not worry too much about the finer points of defense with amateur players.
King is Atlanta’s clear target, but at 24 there are a few other options that could and/or would be available. Theo Gillen is the best high school offensive talent that could be available at 24, though concerns that his arm strength will push him out of shortstop are legitimate. That was ultimately a key reason the Braves waived Vaughn Grissom at the position, and honestly, there’s only so much you can do to improve arm strength at the fringe positions. Among college players State of KansasKaelen Culpepper is a player who intrigues me for some of the same reasons as King, though he’s clearly a light version. Culpepper’s concerns are his ability to stay at shortstop, though he’s quicker than Alvarez, and whether he can translate his bat speed and raw power into playing power. Looking at downfield options, JD Dix from Whitefish Bay HS in Wisconsin is an interesting option. Dix has a well-rounded game for a prep shortstop, and he gets high marks for his build and mentality. An injury last summer hurt his value, but he’s a switch-hitter with solid athleticism and bat-to-ball skills. Dix’s power potential is questionable, but it could be something the Braves feel they can improve with some swing tweaks given his frame and bat speed.
Why the Braves won’t draft a catcher on day one
Bottom line, I don’t see any player in this particular draft who is very appealing compared to the options that might be available. If King is there, I’m 100% behind that pick, but it seems like at least a couple of other intriguing options are shaping up to fall to No. 24. I don’t prefer any of those other players over a player like Ryan Waldschmidt, and if the Braves go with slot options, I’d be more inclined to believe they’ll go with a pitcher. This isn’t an opinion on the Braves’ strategy, per se, it’s just not a draft where there are any players that stand out to me. I have a higher opinion of Culpepper than most, but I’m not sure I see him as a better option than Nacho Alvarez, and while I’m not one to draft out of need, I think the Braves would be better served by continuing to add pitchers given their history of developing pitchers.
Objectives of the second and third day
Payton Green- The Braves wouldn’t have to go far to get Payton Green, who was Georgia Institute of TechnologyThe Braves’ primary shortstop this spring. Green has struggled on the Cape Cod circuit, but he had a standout spring with a .984 OPS and 12 home runs and has some projection still as a college hitter. Green is tall and has room to fill out his frame, and while some worry that the added weight could move him out of the position, the Braves have noticeably liked players they feel they can help add strength to. Green has some major issues with approach, but over the past few seasons I’ve loved what Atlanta has done with player development at the lower levels, with Drake Baldwin being a prime example. It’s a risky pick, but it would be worth a mid-round selection assuming Green isn’t returning for his senior season.
David Hogg II- I don’t think it’s particularly likely that the Braves will go to the prep shortstop beyond the third round, and I think Hogg may be better off honoring his commitment. Louisiana State UniversityHe’s a player whose overall tool set has improved as he’s matured, and Baseball America notes that he has a high baseball IQ. Hogg has a chance to thrive in college, but if the Braves select him in the later rounds, he could be an interesting developmental piece with his bat speed and ability to add more strength to his frame. Hogg will likely stick at shortstop as well.
Jalin Flores If the Braves are looking to add power potential to their shortstop group, then Flores could be the option here, as he hit 18 homers as a sophomore for Texas last spring. Flores may not have the speed to stay at shortstop, but again the Braves are confident they can mitigate these issues with positioning and Flores has the hands and arm to stay at shortstop. Otherwise, he has the power to move to third base if he hits. The biggest concern in the field is his approach, as he is overly aggressive and has a lot of missed swings in his game. The Braves would need to make improvements there, but if Flores stays at shortstop, the offensive bar would not be as high given his power potential. Plus, Flores is a draft-eligible sophomore, which may make him a bit more expensive than similarly talented players.
Woody Hadeen- Hadeen has just one home run in his college career, along with a home run in summer league, which could very well be enough to take him off the board in Atlanta entirely. However, Hadeen is a wonderful hitter, with high contact rates and a great feel for the zone that allowed him to post a .524 on-base percentage this spring. Hadeen may end up being a utility player, but his contact from both sides of the plate and ability to stick around at shortstop could make him a valuable late-round addition. Hadeen has some bat speed and room to add strength, so there may be some amount of power to unleash, though he’ll likely never get close to average.