It’s starting to feel like college football season. Summer is in full swing, media days are right around the corner, and the preseason polls are starting to come down. On Tuesday, the Big 12 football preseason poll came out. And as we prepare to embark on Las Vegas next week, here are the top five takeaways from the poll. Big 12 Survey 2024in which two teams leave and four new ones enter the league.
Parity, parity, parity
If you’re a Big 12 fan, it’s no surprise that five teams received votes to win the conference this season, and then teams seven through eleven are separated by a couple hundred votes overall. West Virginia Colorado is in seventh place with 581 votes, and Colorado is in 11th place with 400 votes. All told, that’s an incredibly small difference between five teams in the polls.
And then when you think about how WVU fans feel they should be competing for a Big 12 title after nine wins in 2023, and Colorado has the top-tier talent to have hopes of being in a Big 12 Championship Game as well, this league is going to be so fascinating week to week, and more than half the conference thinks if things are going their way, why can’t they?
New vs. Old Big 12
I have to give credit to the user Wild Fund in our Heartland College Athletics free forumHe calculated these numbers on the forum.
Former Pac-12 teams are picked at Nos. 1, 5, 11 and 16: Average 8.25
Last year’s new teams 8,13,14,15: Average 12.5
The “Hateful Eight” 2,3,4,6,7,9,10,12: Average 6,625
How should we interpret this?
Well, the “Hateful 8,” the eight former Big 12 teams, as they were dubbed in 2021, clearly have the most depth, top to bottom. Three of the top four, and no team ranked lower than No. 12.
The former Pac-12 teams have high-level competition from Utah and Arizona, but the jury is still out on Colorado and Arizona State.
Meanwhile, last year’s teams, which included three Group of 5 teams plus BYU, still have work to do to prove to the media that they are contenders. They all struggled last year, but there is certainly tremendous potential for each of them. UCF has recruited incredibly well. Houston has a new coach and staff in the hottest recruiting zone in the country. Cincinnati has shown it can reach the top of the mountain by reaching a College Football Playoffsalbeit under a different regime, and BYU is a national brand that needs to prove its model works in college football’s new world order.
We can’t say enough about Lance Leipold
Lance Leipold He enters his fourth season as Kansas’ head coach and is receiving multiple first-place votes to win the Big 12 Conference. We are NOT talking enough about how incredibly impressive this is for Leipold and his staff in Lawrence.
He took over one of the worst college football programs in the history of the sport. In year three, he won nine games and this team is now projected to be in the Big 12 race at the end of the season, and may be in the College Football Playoff in December.
It’s not just about the change, but the speed at which it’s happening. And while it’s been a topic of conversation in the Big 12 and across college football, it doesn’t seem like it’s been given the respect and attention it deserves considering how bad this program was when he took over.
Who is this year’s mid-table surprise?
Last year, Oklahoma State was picked to finish seventh in the Big 12 and then made it to the Big 12 Championship Game against Texas. Two years ago, TCU was picked to finish seventh and made it to the National Championship Game. In 2021, Baylor was picked eighth in the Big 12 and won the Big 12 Championship.
So who will be the pick this year? Iowa State came in sixth, West Virginia seventh, UCF eighth, and Texas Tech ninth.
I’m not saying it will be one of them, but history suggests someone in this conference will surprise and be right there in the mix for a Big 12 championship. Start placing your bets now.
Hot Seat Watches
There’s only one really hot spot in the Big 12 right now, and that’s Baylor. Dave Aranda.
However, is another really bad year for Cincinnati problematic for Scott Satterfield? Same for a fellow second-year head coach at Arizona State, Kenny Dillingham? What about BYU as it navigates the Power 4 world, while trying to maintain principles and standards? UCF has tremendous talent, but if they don’t compete, will Gus get criticism? Joey McGuire is ready to break out in year three, we think, but if he doesn’t, are there any complaints in West Texas?
I’m not predicting any of this, but we know turnover is high in the coaching ranks, and something tells me that come season’s end, Dave Aranda won’t be the only candidate in contention. Chances are someone else, at least one, will join him in the conversation.
